Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.35 – 94.77

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±11

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 31.18Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 54.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 45.36Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.4 ±11.1

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 45.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 30.48Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 18.34Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 1857, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 1857, 6305

Auto

23.5 20%

Teleop

55.0 47%

Endgame

38.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 5924, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 5924, 1452

Auto

26.6 30%

Teleop

25.0 28%

Endgame

37.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.4pts

Blue projected score94.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.6
Score range: 66–160
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.1Season APEX359.4

23.5Auto26.6

55Teleop25

38.6Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	22
teleop	89	61
endgame	39	51
foul	15	10
total	168	144

Result

Final score

168 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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