Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.32 – 96.66

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.3 ±10.5

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -29.76Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 128.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 32.12Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.6 ±11

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 57.39Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 19.8Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 19.47Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2473, 604, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2473, 604, 3598

Auto

32.3 25%

Teleop

59.9 46%

Endgame

38.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7419, 4990, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7419, 4990, 10252

Auto

14.4 15%

Teleop

61.2 64%

Endgame

19.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.3pts

Blue projected score96.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.7
Score range: 68–160
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.3Season APEX281.6

32.3Auto14.4

59.9Teleop61.2

38Endgame19.5

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	12
teleop	197	77
endgame	62	54
foul	10	0
total	314	143

Result

Final score

314 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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