Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.38 – 129.73

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.9 ±12.1

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 14.27Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 59.83Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 32.28Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±11.6

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 29.3Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 47.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 53.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 1857, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 1857, 5924

Auto

23.1 21%

Teleop

50.4 45%

Endgame

37.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1458, 6305, 9584

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1458, 6305, 9584

Auto

15.8 13%

Teleop

75.9 60%

Endgame

34.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score129.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 78–158
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.9Season APEX261.7

23.1Auto15.8

50.4Teleop75.9

37.5Endgame34.7

0Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	20
teleop	33	74
endgame	13	13
foul	50	30
total	110	137

Result

Final score

110 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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