Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.04 – 151.24

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±11

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 0.91Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 32.18Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 20.95Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703.4 ±9.3

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 23.66Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 75.15Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 52.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 3598, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 3598, 1452

Auto

10.9 23%

Teleop

16.1 33%

Endgame

21.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4990, 3045, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4990, 3045, 971

Auto

26.7 18%

Teleop

76.9 51%

Endgame

48.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54pts

Blue projected score151.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.2
Score range: 26–179
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 158.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.2Season APEX703.4

10.9Auto26.7

16.1Teleop76.9

21.2Endgame48.5

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	34	83
endgame	20	27
foul	5	0
total	75	127

Result

Final score

75 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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