Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.47 – 305.58

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.4 ±10.5

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 56.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 51.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 126.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.7 ±10.5

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -1.63Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 268.83Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 38.38Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8793, 9584, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 9584, 604

Auto

37.3 17%

Teleop

128.2 57%

Endgame

59.7 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10059, 9470, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 9470, 3257

Auto

59.6 21%

Teleop

178.5 62%

Endgame

51.8 18%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.5pts

Blue projected score305.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.1
Score range: 206–334
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 154.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.4Season APEX609.7

37.3Auto59.6

128.2Teleop178.5

59.7Endgame51.8

47Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	41
teleop	106	99
endgame	67	39
foul	35	40
total	236	219

Result

Final score

236 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 44.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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