Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.22 – 84.46

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.9 ±9.8

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 49.96Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 43.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 39.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.1 ±10.5

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 5.68Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 76.36Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 2.42Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7419, 971, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7419, 971, 6305

Auto

39.1 27%

Teleop

61.7 43%

Endgame

43.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7413, 3045, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 3045, 7607

Auto

4.0 5%

Teleop

50.6 61%

Endgame

28.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.2pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.8
Score range: 56–161
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.9Season APEX445.1

39.1Auto4

61.7Teleop50.6

43.3Endgame28.7

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	6
teleop	142	57
endgame	44	0
foul	10	20
total	215	83

Result

Final score

215 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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