Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.12 – 4.95

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737 ±9.9

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 81.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 126.41Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX 0.44Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±11.6

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -3.81Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 43.54Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -34.78Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 604, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 604, 10059

Auto

33.6 17%

Teleop

105.2 53%

Endgame

60.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7607, 1857, 2473

/ 100 compat

Projected

4.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 1857, 2473

Auto

5.4 0%

Teleop

2.6 0%

Endgame

-9.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.1pts

Blue projected score4.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 203.2
Score range: -23–236
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 155.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737Season APEX265

33.6Auto5.4

105.2Teleop2.6

60.8Endgame-9.4

30Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	17
teleop	110	14
endgame	34	34
foul	10	0
total	199	65

Result

Final score

199 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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