Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.74 – 74.48

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±10.5

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 6.12Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 255.14Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 49.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.5 ±12.2

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 10.23Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 47.28Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 16.97Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10252, 9470, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 9470, 8793

Auto

63.0 20%

Teleop

192.9 62%

Endgame

56.1 18%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6981, 7419, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6981, 7419, 1452

Auto

16.0 24%

Teleop

21.9 33%

Endgame

28.9 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score310.7pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.3
Score range: 47–338
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 151.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570Season APEX250.5

63Auto16

192.9Teleop21.9

56.1Endgame28.9

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	13
teleop	239	69
endgame	96	46
foul	45	0
total	428	128

Result

Final score

428 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 85.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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