Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.3 – 122.98

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.4 ±10.5

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -18.86Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 44.31Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 41.85Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.4 ±11

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 35.07Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 38.54Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 49.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 670, 4171, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 670, 4171, 971

Auto

27.5 37%

Teleop

27.3 36%

Endgame

20.0 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 852, 4990, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 4990, 6305

Auto

25.0 21%

Teleop

56.0 46%

Endgame

39.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.3pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.7
Score range: 39–151
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 153.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.4Season APEX210.4

27.5Auto25

27.3Teleop56

20Endgame39.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	60	42
endgame	40	13
foul	0	0
total	133	76

Result

Final score

133 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 56.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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