Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 100.64

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.2 ±12.1

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -9.12Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 0.12Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX -3.63Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±11

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 36.53Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 14.76Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 49.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10059, 7413, 5760

/ 100 compat

Projected

-12.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 7413, 5760

Auto

0.3 0%

Teleop

-9.0 43%

Endgame

-12.2 58%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3598, 3257, 9584

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3598, 3257, 9584

Auto

6.8 8%

Teleop

42.4 48%

Endgame

39.8 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-12.6pts

Blue projected score100.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.6
Score range: -28–129
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.2Season APEX384.7

0.3Auto6.8

-9Teleop42.4

-12.2Endgame39.8

28Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	27	118
endgame	7	25
foul	0	0
total	45	163

Result

Final score

45 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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