Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.77 – 106.72

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 677.5 ±10.5

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 253Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 58.21Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 86.56Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 197.9 ±11

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 36.36Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 41.93Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 28.43Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9470, 1857, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9470, 1857, 7419

Auto

75.2 20%

Teleop

219.6 57%

Endgame

88.1 23%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7413, 3598, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 3598, 4990

Auto

12.3 12%

Teleop

60.2 59%

Endgame

29.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score397.8pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 291
Score range: 73–432
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

677.5Season APEX197.9

75.2Auto12.3

219.6Teleop60.2

88.1Endgame29

5Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	10
teleop	209	12
endgame	69	16
foul	0	0
total	365	38

Result

Final score

365 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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