Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.89 – 429.33

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 163.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±10.4

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -6.76Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 49.27Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 42.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 752.3 ±9.9

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 86.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 14.7Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 327.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 670, 6305, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 670, 6305, 8793

Auto

21.7 24%

Teleop

57.0 62%

Endgame

13.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 2473, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 2473, 1678

Auto

85.3 20%

Teleop

233.6 55%

Endgame

104.5 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score429.3pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -344.4
Score range: 58–456
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 152.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412Season APEX752.3

21.7Auto85.3

57Teleop233.6

13.3Endgame104.5

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	73
teleop	35	24
endgame	21	14
foul	0	0
total	76	111

Result

Final score

76 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 163.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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