Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.09 – 88.45

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

104 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.7 ±12.1

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 47.56Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 36.39Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX -7.86Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±11.6

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 43.97Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 33.12Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 11.36Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 4171, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 4171, 7413

Auto

14.0 20%

Teleop

32.4 46%

Endgame

24.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 852, 4990, 5760

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 4990, 5760

Auto

9.2 11%

Teleop

44.9 54%

Endgame

29.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.1pts

Blue projected score88.5pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.4
Score range: 48–116
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.7Season APEX182.6

14Auto9.2

32.4Teleop44.9

24Endgame29

46Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	22
teleop	71	28
endgame	25	14
foul	0	0
total	104	64

Result

Final score

104 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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