Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.81 – 160.56

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210 ±11.6

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 3.47Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 1.03Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 28.31Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 603.4 ±10.5

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 55.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 63.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 41.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 10252, 1458

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 10252, 1458

Auto

10.8 38%

Teleop

18.7 66%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 3045, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 3045, 3598

Auto

18.9 12%

Teleop

74.7 48%

Endgame

61.1 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.8pts

Blue projected score160.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.7
Score range: 5–189
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210Season APEX603.4

10.8Auto18.9

18.7Teleop74.7

-1.3Endgame61.1

65Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	28
teleop	15	88
endgame	0	58
foul	0	0
total	23	174

Result

Final score

23 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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