Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.45 – 265.4

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±11.6

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 54.89Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -5.07Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 50.63Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 633.2 ±9.8

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 57.4Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 74.7Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 133.3Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5924, 10059, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 10059, 6305

Auto

29.4 31%

Teleop

51.7 54%

Endgame

13.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 7419, 604

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 7419, 604

Auto

66.2 25%

Teleop

144.0 54%

Endgame

54.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.5pts

Blue projected score265.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.9
Score range: 71–294
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 158.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.7Season APEX633.2

29.4Auto66.2

51.7Teleop144

13.9Endgame54.3

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	30	101
endgame	16	36
foul	0	0
total	61	157

Result

Final score

61 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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