Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.96 – 270.8

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.2 ±10.5

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX -6.89Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 80.16Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 1.69Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 532.3 ±11.1

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 228.47Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 36.56Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 5.77Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7413, 971, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

75 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7413, 971, 7607

Auto

24.1 30%

Teleop

21.2 26%

Endgame

35.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9470, 1458, 5760

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9470, 1458, 5760

Auto

52.4 20%

Teleop

155.1 58%

Endgame

61.2 23%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75pts

Blue projected score270.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -195.8
Score range: 47–299
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 157.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.2Season APEX532.3

24.1Auto52.4

21.2Teleop155.1

35.3Endgame61.2

80Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	56
teleop	82	170
endgame	5	37
foul	0	0
total	102	263

Result

Final score

102 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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