Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.76 – 105.9

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.6 ±11.6

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 24.97Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -4.67Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 23.46Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 494.5 ±10.5

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 1.86Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 44.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 59.75Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 10059, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 10059, 4990

Auto

4.5 10%

Teleop

37.0 84%

Endgame

2.3 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1452, 6305, 3045

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1452, 6305, 3045

Auto

17.1 17%

Teleop

39.5 39%

Endgame

44.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.8pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.1
Score range: 15–135
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.6Season APEX494.5

4.5Auto17.1

37Teleop39.5

2.3Endgame44.6

61Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	36	58
endgame	12	67
foul	40	0
total	101	140

Result

Final score

101 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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