Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.84 – 316.94

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 103 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463.5 ±10.4

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX -8.65Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 87.88Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 46.61Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.7 ±10.5

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 27.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 285.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 4.65Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3257, 7419, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 7419, 3598

Auto

24.8 21%

Teleop

73.8 62%

Endgame

20.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 1678, 852

/ 100 compat

Projected

316.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 1678, 852

Auto

62.5 20%

Teleop

171.0 55%

Endgame

79.5 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.8pts

Blue projected score316.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.1
Score range: 99–344
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 635 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463.5Season APEX594.7

24.8Auto62.5

73.8Teleop171

20.8Endgame79.5

61Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	110
teleop	44	291
endgame	47	100
foul	5	15
total	119	516

Result

Final score

119 – 516

Prediction correct · off by 103 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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