Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.18 – 15.12

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

477 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.3 ±9.9

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 118.54Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 55.37Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 209.27Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±11

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -15.11Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX -5.76Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 35.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 604, 5924, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 604, 5924, 9470

Auto

69.2 18%

Teleop

220.5 58%

Endgame

90.6 24%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 670, 7607, 1458

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 670, 7607, 1458

Auto

17.7 100%

Teleop

-2.0 0%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score383.2pts

Blue projected score15.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 368.1
Score range: -11–409
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 539 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.3Season APEX343.6

69.2Auto17.7

220.5Teleop-2

90.6Endgame-1.6

24Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	14
teleop	262	37
endgame	98	6
foul	15	5
total	477	62

Result

Final score

477 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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