Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.39 – 74.29

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.6 ±10.5

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 36.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 328.17Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 15.83Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286 ±11

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 6.77Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 36.72Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 30.8Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6305, 1678, 10252

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 1678, 10252

Auto

80.9 22%

Teleop

198.4 54%

Endgame

91.3 25%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7607, 3257, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 3257, 5924

Auto

9.5 15%

Teleop

31.9 51%

Endgame

21.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score380.4pts

Blue projected score74.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 306.1
Score range: 40–414
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.6Season APEX286

80.9Auto9.5

198.4Teleop31.9

91.3Endgame21.1

0Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	0
teleop	198	19
endgame	103	0
foul	5	15
total	396	34

Result

Final score

396 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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