Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.23 – 144.65

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±11.6

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 2.44Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 2.16Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 88.63Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 510.4 ±10.5

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 8.07Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 32.3Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 104.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 9584, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 9584, 7419

Auto

11.0 11%

Teleop

70.0 72%

Endgame

16.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3257, 10252, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3257, 10252, 971

Auto

31.9 23%

Teleop

63.8 46%

Endgame

43.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.2pts

Blue projected score144.7pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 66–172
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX510.4

11Auto31.9

70Teleop63.8

16Endgame43.2

101Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	23
teleop	81	17
endgame	51	40
foul	0	5
total	156	85

Result

Final score

156 – 85

Prediction missed · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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