Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.2 – 123.16

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

19 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.9 ±11

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 25.94Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -14.55Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4990Basement Bots

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 24.81Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±11.6

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 16.27Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 38.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 68.21Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1452, 670, 4990

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1452, 670, 4990

Auto

1.9 9%

Teleop

-0.8 0%

Endgame

20.9 95%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 852, 1458, 3598

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 1458, 3598

Auto

12.0 10%

Teleop

60.0 48%

Endgame

52.0 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score123.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87
Score range: 8–151
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 92 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.9Season APEX254.1

1.9Auto12

-0.8Teleop60

20.9Endgame52

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	0	33
endgame	0	13
foul	5	10
total	19	73

Result

Final score

19 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 33.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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