Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.93 – 202.21

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 99.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 796.1 ±9.9

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 8.1Rank 24Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 17.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 247.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.4 ±11.1

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -10.12Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 193.44Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX 18.89Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5924, 3045, 1678

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 3045, 1678

Auto

42.7 17%

Teleop

120.5 48%

Endgame

89.6 35%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10059, 9470, 2473

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10059, 9470, 2473

Auto

34.1 18%

Teleop

123.2 64%

Endgame

36.0 19%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score272.9pts

Blue projected score202.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.7
Score range: 176–299
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

796.1Season APEX493.4

42.7Auto34.1

120.5Teleop123.2

89.6Endgame36

152Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	50
teleop	263	144
endgame	122	10
foul	0	0
total	471	204

Result

Final score

471 – 204

Prediction correct · off by 99.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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