Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.99 – 114.94

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 79 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.3 ±10.5

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 120.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 32.08Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 68.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.9 ±12.1

10252Mecha Lions

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 69.86Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX -3.36Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 48.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 8793, 1857

/ 100 compat

Projected

222 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 8793, 1857

Auto

45.2 21%

Teleop

102.3 48%

Endgame

67.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10252, 5760, 4171

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10252, 5760, 4171

Auto

32.8 26%

Teleop

67.6 54%

Endgame

25.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score222pts

Blue projected score114.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.1
Score range: 88–249
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.3Season APEX170.9

45.2Auto32.8

102.3Teleop67.6

67Endgame25

62Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	7
teleop	64	9
endgame	41	6
foul	0	5
total	152	27

Result

Final score

152 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 79 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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