Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

9.1 – 136.82

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.2 ±12.2

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 12.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6981Clockwork Concord

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -8.15Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 4.61Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439 ±10.5

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 110.34Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 46.98Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX -20.5Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 6981, 7607

/ 100 compat

Projected

9.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 6981, 7607

Auto

-11.7 0%

Teleop

13.9 100%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 604, 6305, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 604, 6305, 7413

Auto

36.5 27%

Teleop

44.4 33%

Endgame

54.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score9.1pts

Blue projected score136.8pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.7
Score range: -18–164
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.2Season APEX439

-11.7Auto36.5

13.9Teleop44.4

-1.6Endgame54.5

239Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	49
teleop	8	87
endgame	12	50
foul	0	0
total	24	186

Result

Final score

24 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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