Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.52 – 168.95

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 109.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.9 ±10.5

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 20.44Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2473Goldstrikers

Season APEX 60.5Event APEX -3.74Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3257Vortechs

Season APEX 176.8Event APEX 12.82Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.8 ±9.8

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 147.43Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3598SEStematic Eliminators

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 29.04Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

670Homestead Robotics

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX -7.52Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 2473, 3257

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3045, 2473, 3257

Auto

-4.1 0%

Teleop

25.4 100%

Endgame

1.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9470, 3598, 670

/ 100 compat

Projected

169 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9470, 3598, 670

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

87.4 51%

Endgame

47.7 28%

Strengths

· 9470 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.5pts

Blue projected score169pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.4
Score range: 4–195
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.9Season APEX690.8

-4.1Auto36.4

25.4Teleop87.4

1.7Endgame47.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	51
teleop	47	197
endgame	37	64
foul	15	0
total	106	312

Result

Final score

106 – 312

Prediction correct · off by 109.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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