Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

310.7 – 125.65

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

442 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 87 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.9 ±10.5

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 209.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4171BayBots

Season APEX 54.2Event APEX 17.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 83.81Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.7 ±12.1

1857Citrus Sparks

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 94.26Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 42.97Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10059Tech On Titans

Season APEX 47.7Event APEX -11.58Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1678, 4171, 7419

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1678, 4171, 7419

Auto

63.7 21%

Teleop

142.3 47%

Endgame

94.6 31%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1857, 1452, 10059

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1857, 1452, 10059

Auto

28.7 25%

Teleop

63.2 56%

Endgame

21.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score310.7pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 185
Score range: 102–335
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 525 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.9Season APEX219.7

63.7Auto28.7

142.3Teleop63.2

94.6Endgame21.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	20
teleop	261	20
endgame	77	18
foul	0	25
total	442	83

Result

Final score

442 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 87 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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