Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
105.73 – 59.94
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
54 – 69
Prediction missed · off by 30.4 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.2 ±11
Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 63.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 18.56Rank 26Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 23.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 23.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 37.68Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -1.54Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6305, 7607, 5760
57
/ 100 compatProjected
105.7 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 6305, 7607, 5760
Auto
21.4 20%
Teleop
65.2 61%
Endgame
20.3 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8793, 4990, 6981
43
/ 100 compatProjected
59.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8793, 4990, 6981
Auto
6.8 11%
Teleop
35.2 58%
Endgame
18.4 30%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.26
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score105.7pts
Blue projected score59.9pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample134alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 45.8
- Score range
- 35–131
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
237.2Season APEX238.6
21.4Auto6.8
65.2Teleop35.2
20.3Endgame18.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 13 |
| teleop | 22 | 44 |
| endgame | 20 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 54 | 69 |
Result
Final score
54 – 69
Prediction missed · off by 30.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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