Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

584.31 – 279.5

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

601 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 860.1 ±9.9

5760The Marinators

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 4.23Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1678Citrus Circuits

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 327.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 252.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.1 ±9.9

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 70.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

604Quixilver

Season APEX 333.7Event APEX 173.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7413Plus Ultra

Season APEX 11.7Event APEX 34.77Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5760, 1678, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

584.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5760, 1678, 9470

Auto

118.6 21%

Teleop

322.9 57%

Endgame

128.5 23%

Strengths

· 1678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 604, 7413

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 604, 7413

Auto

50.1 18%

Teleop

146.1 54%

Endgame

75.8 28%

Strengths

· 604 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score584.3pts

Blue projected score279.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 304.8
Score range: 247–617
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 929 vs event baseline 184.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

860.1Season APEX628.1

118.6Auto50.1

322.9Teleop146.1

128.5Endgame75.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	134	44
teleop	302	176
endgame	110	93
foul	55	15
total	601	328

Result

Final score

601 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Match videos

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