Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.68 – 211.4

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 80 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±10.5

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 103.23Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 28.6Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 101.85Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.1 ±11.1

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 59.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 96.01Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 56.11Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 7323, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 7323, 9084

Auto

39.1 17%

Teleop

133.8 59%

Endgame

55.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5089, 702, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 702, 2429

Auto

28.0 14%

Teleop

117.8 59%

Endgame

53.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score233.7pts

Blue projected score211.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 174–271
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 204.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468Season APEX433.1

39.1Auto28

133.8Teleop117.8

55.2Endgame53.5

34Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	54
teleop	194	116
endgame	78	103
foul	5	0
total	332	273

Result

Final score

332 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 80 pts

Match videos

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