Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

448.91 – 234.47

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 1.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 27.19Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 204.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 216.96Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±10.5

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 103.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 28.84Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 102.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 6036, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 6036, 5026

Auto

74.0 17%

Teleop

275.0 62%

Endgame

95.2 21%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 696, 7323, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 7323, 9084

Auto

45.0 20%

Teleop

131.6 58%

Endgame

51.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score448.9pts

Blue projected score234.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 214.4
Score range: 198–485
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 681 vs event baseline 200.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.9Season APEX468

74Auto45

275Teleop131.6

95.2Endgame51.1

12Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	17
teleop	266	141
endgame	73	75
foul	5	0
total	448	233

Result

Final score

448 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 1.2 pts

Match videos

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