Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.44 – 223.2

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±13.3

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 29.53Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 107.09Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 42.82Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.1 ±11.1

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 63.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 100.38Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 59.74Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4964, 6934, 597

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4964, 6934, 597

Auto

36.0 21%

Teleop

83.6 48%

Endgame

53.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5089, 702, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 702, 2429

Auto

28.5 14%

Teleop

131.1 63%

Endgame

49.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score223.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.8
Score range: 143–259
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.1Season APEX433.1

36Auto28.5

83.6Teleop131.1

53.5Endgame49.3

18Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	48	55
endgame	18	79
foul	0	0
total	105	160

Result

Final score

105 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Match videos

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