Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.26 – 253.64

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

216 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.6 ±11

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 79.33Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 67.72Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 56.21Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 104.69Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 116.29Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 32.66Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8033, 4, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8033, 4, 6560

Auto

29.3 15%

Teleop

121.4 62%

Endgame

46.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3255, 3501, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3255, 3501, 1148

Auto

44.7 18%

Teleop

141.9 57%

Endgame

60.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.3pts

Blue projected score253.6pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.4
Score range: 167–290
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 469 vs event baseline 201.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.6Season APEX703

29.3Auto44.7

121.4Teleop141.9

46.1Endgame60.2

32Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	40
teleop	134	157
endgame	66	56
foul	0	0
total	216	253

Result

Final score

216 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 6.7 pts

Match videos

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