Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

231.14 – 266.67

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

220 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±10.5

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 102.11Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 26.99Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 102.04Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 108.8Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 120.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 37.02Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 7323, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 7323, 9084

Auto

33.5 15%

Teleop

132.3 59%

Endgame

58.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3255, 3501, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3255, 3501, 1148

Auto

47.8 19%

Teleop

151.5 59%

Endgame

58.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score231.1pts

Blue projected score266.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.5
Score range: 195–303
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 200.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468Season APEX703

33.5Auto47.8

132.3Teleop151.5

58.1Endgame58.5

18Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	35
teleop	108	95
endgame	20	61
foul	5	0
total	220	191

Result

Final score

220 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 43.4 pts

Match videos

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