Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

464.84 – 190.29

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 32.34Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 210.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 221.88Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.6 ±11

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 76.01Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 62.58Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 51.7Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 6036, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 6036, 5026

Auto

77.2 17%

Teleop

287.7 63%

Endgame

94.4 21%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8033, 4, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8033, 4, 6560

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

113.1 61%

Endgame

45.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score464.8pts

Blue projected score190.3pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274.5
Score range: 154–501
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 638 vs event baseline 198.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.9Season APEX403.6

77.2Auto26.4

287.7Teleop113.1

94.4Endgame45.7

15Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	41
teleop	229	149
endgame	93	46
foul	0	10
total	392	246

Result

Final score

392 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Match videos

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