Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.28 – 276.69

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 22.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 201.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 212.97Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 112.77Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 123.99Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 39.93Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 6036, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 6036, 5026

Auto

77.9 18%

Teleop

259.7 61%

Endgame

90.2 21%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3255, 3501, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3255, 3501, 1148

Auto

46.7 17%

Teleop

154.5 58%

Endgame

67.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score436.3pts

Blue projected score276.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.6
Score range: 239–474
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 209.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.9Season APEX703

77.9Auto46.7

259.7Teleop154.5

90.2Endgame67

25Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	49
teleop	159	90
endgame	54	84
foul	0	0
total	295	223

Result

Final score

295 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 97.5 pts

Match videos

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