Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

446.63 – 365.81

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

365 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 798.9 ±8.7

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 26.1Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 204.47Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 216.06Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.6 ±9.8

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 26.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 165.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 173.68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11024, 6036, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11024, 6036, 5026

Auto

79.0 18%

Teleop

272.2 62%

Endgame

90.5 20%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 7415, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

365.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 7415, 6995

Auto

85.0 24%

Teleop

197.2 55%

Endgame

75.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score446.6pts

Blue projected score365.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.8
Score range: 329–484
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 745 vs event baseline 207.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

798.9Season APEX572.6

79Auto85

272.2Teleop197.2

90.5Endgame75.4

17Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	57
teleop	179	225
endgame	88	98
foul	30	0
total	365	380

Result

Final score

365 – 380

Prediction missed · off by 47.9 pts

Match videos

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