Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.05 – 149.03

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.1 ±12.4

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 115.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 75.67Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 10.57Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451 ±11.7

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 60.24Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 78.22Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9772Titans Robotics

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 10.57Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3965, 7415, 9696

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3965, 7415, 9696

Auto

37.4 18%

Teleop

105.7 52%

Endgame

59.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6934, 3255, 9772

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6934, 3255, 9772

Auto

25.6 17%

Teleop

77.8 52%

Endgame

46.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.1pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53
Score range: 112–239
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 205.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.1Season APEX451

37.4Auto25.6

105.7Teleop77.8

59.8Endgame46.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	44
teleop	164	169
endgame	63	39
foul	0	10
total	294	262

Result

Final score

294 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 102.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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