Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.57 – 187.91

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.2 ±10.5

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 58.11Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 150.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 89.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.7 ±12.8

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 169.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 17.13Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 1.77Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5089, 7415, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5089, 7415, 696

Auto

65.2 23%

Teleop

154.0 54%

Endgame

66.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6995, 8060, 10166

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6995, 8060, 10166

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

101.7 56%

Endgame

48.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.6pts

Blue projected score187.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.7
Score range: 153–334
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 646 vs event baseline 196.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.2Season APEX248.7

65.2Auto30.8

154Teleop101.7

66.5Endgame48.1

25Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	62
teleop	280	101
endgame	53	46
foul	25	0
total	437	209

Result

Final score

437 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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