Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.97 – 149.74

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

176 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 85.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.8 ±11.7

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 16.92Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 233.86Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6560Charging Champions

Season APEX 111Event APEX 62.19Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.9 ±11.2

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 120.2Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX -5.39Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 34.93Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6000, 5026, 6560

/ 100 compat

Projected

313 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 5026, 6560

Auto

54.9 18%

Teleop

176.3 59%

Endgame

67.0 22%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3501, 6658, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3501, 6658, 1148

Auto

30.3 20%

Teleop

85.3 57%

Endgame

33.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score313pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.2
Score range: 114–349
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 197.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.8Season APEX457.9

54.9Auto30.3

176.3Teleop85.3

67Endgame33.9

17Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	26
teleop	86	76
endgame	38	81
foul	0	0
total	176	183

Result

Final score

176 – 183

Prediction missed · off by 85.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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