Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.45 – 153.81

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190 ±13.9

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 2.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3965Sultan Robotics Team 3965

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 45.33Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 38.88Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±12.2

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 36.16Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 94.85Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9772Titans Robotics

Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 22.8Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10166, 3965, 597

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10166, 3965, 597

Auto

25.2 30%

Teleop

44.4 53%

Endgame

14.4 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1148, 702, 9772

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1148, 702, 9772

Auto

20.8 14%

Teleop

96.2 63%

Endgame

35.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.5pts

Blue projected score153.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 50–190
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190Season APEX298.3

25.2Auto20.8

44.4Teleop96.2

14.4Endgame35.9

8Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	27
teleop	14	102
endgame	18	28
foul	15	0
total	65	157

Result

Final score

65 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 12.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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