Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.78 – 272.59

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

459 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 147.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 495.9 ±11.2

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 217.58Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 1.59Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 77.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.8 ±11.7

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 91.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 163.92Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 16.7Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 8060, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 8060, 696

Auto

47.4 16%

Teleop

181.4 62%

Endgame

65.0 22%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6934, 3512, 3328

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6934, 3512, 3328

Auto

30.5 12%

Teleop

164.5 62%

Endgame

69.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score296.8pts

Blue projected score272.6pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.2
Score range: 238–332
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 864 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

495.9Season APEX420.8

47.4Auto30.5

181.4Teleop164.5

65Endgame69

49Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	52
teleop	248	190
endgame	121	163
foul	15	0
total	459	405

Result

Final score

459 – 405

Prediction correct · off by 147.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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