Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.53 – 289.62

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.4 ±13.9

6000Firehawk Robotics

Season APEX 59Event APEX 16.03Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9520Rock-it Robotics

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 16.15Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8533Rancho Reapers

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.35Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 619.1 ±10.7

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 161.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 18.33Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 110.13Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6000, 9520, 8533

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6000, 9520, 8533

Auto

18.2 46%

Teleop

4.3 11%

Endgame

17.3 43%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7415, 10936, 3255

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.6 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7415, 10936, 3255

Auto

70.3 25%

Teleop

144.9 52%

Endgame

63.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.5pts

Blue projected score289.6pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -240.1
Score range: 15–325
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 196.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.4Season APEX619.1

18.2Auto70.3

4.3Teleop144.9

17.3Endgame63.7

26Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	58
teleop	21	63
endgame	4	41
foul	15	0
total	58	162

Result

Final score

58 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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