Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.63 – 319.87

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.7 ±11.2

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 127.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

22Double Deuce

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 24.83Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8033Highlander Robotics

Season APEX 146.1Event APEX 83.75Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±11.2

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 72.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 215.89Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4964Roosevelt Robotics

Season APEX 65.8Event APEX 31.9Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3501, 22, 8033

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3501, 22, 8033

Auto

35.6 15%

Teleop

136.9 58%

Endgame

64.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4, 6036, 4964

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4, 6036, 4964

Auto

43.6 14%

Teleop

216.7 68%

Endgame

57.5 18%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.6pts

Blue projected score319.9pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.2
Score range: 201–355
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 196.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.7Season APEX547

35.6Auto43.6

136.9Teleop216.7

64.4Endgame57.5

9Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	61
teleop	63	128
endgame	70	45
foul	5	0
total	158	234

Result

Final score

158 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 81.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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