Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.86 – 45.71

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.5 ±10.7

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 10.46Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 104.93Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 27.47Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.5 ±12.8

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 31.37Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX -7.68Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9505Vyserions

Season APEX 54.4Event APEX 22.02Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3328, 9084, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3328, 9084, 11024

Auto

22.3 15%

Teleop

77.4 54%

Endgame

44.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2404, 10147, 9505

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 10147, 9505

Auto

31.9 56%

Teleop

7.1 12%

Endgame

18.1 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.9pts

Blue projected score45.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.2
Score range: 10–179
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 198.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.5Season APEX177.5

22.3Auto31.9

77.4Teleop7.1

44.7Endgame18.1

18Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	15
teleop	93	2
endgame	46	2
foul	0	10
total	181	29

Result

Final score

181 – 29

Prediction correct · off by 27.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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