Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

367.51 – 90.83

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.1 ±9.9

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 212.67Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

702Bagel Bytes

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 90.86Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 63.98Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.7 ±13.3

10936Hooverstan

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 20.66Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5089Robo-Nerds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 66.43Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 3.74Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 702, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 702, 2429

Auto

58.6 16%

Teleop

224.8 62%

Endgame

78.2 22%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10936, 5089, 8060

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10936, 5089, 8060

Auto

12.1 15%

Teleop

34.7 44%

Endgame

32.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score367.5pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 276.7
Score range: 55–404
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 197.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.1Season APEX153.7

58.6Auto12.1

224.8Teleop34.7

78.2Endgame32.5

59Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	20
teleop	251	36
endgame	107	14
foul	0	0
total	407	70

Result

Final score

407 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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