Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

448.82 – 228.8

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 748.5 ±8.7

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 229.83Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 174.7Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 44.29Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 593 ±9.9

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 73.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3501Firebots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 132.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7323TriTron

Season APEX 78.7Event APEX 22.77Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5026, 7415, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

448.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5026, 7415, 11024

Auto

75.3 17%

Teleop

259.9 58%

Endgame

115.1 26%

Strengths

· 5026 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 3501, 7323

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2429, 3501, 7323

Auto

48.7 22%

Teleop

117.1 53%

Endgame

54.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score448.8pts

Blue projected score228.8pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 220
Score range: 193–485
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 198.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

748.5Season APEX593

75.3Auto48.7

259.9Teleop117.1

115.1Endgame54.4

73Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	43
teleop	120	95
endgame	38	36
foul	45	0
total	304	174

Result

Final score

304 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 99.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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