Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

37.65 – 246.06

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±13.9

9696Hamichanics

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 4.55Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

597The Wolverines

Season APEX 107.4Event APEX 31.92Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8060Command B

Season APEX 38Event APEX 1.18Rank 37Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.3 ±11.2

3328NoHoRobo

Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 10.99Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 21.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6036Peninsula Robotics

Season APEX 334.7Event APEX 214.06Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9696, 597, 8060

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9696, 597, 8060

Auto

11.9 28%

Teleop

24.5 57%

Endgame

6.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3328, 2404, 6036

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3328, 2404, 6036

Auto

38.9 16%

Teleop

165.3 67%

Endgame

41.0 17%

Strengths

· 6036 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score37.7pts

Blue projected score246.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.4
Score range: 2–282
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 199.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.7Season APEX492.3

11.9Auto38.9

24.5Teleop165.3

6.3Endgame41

35Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	56
teleop	13	149
endgame	14	71
foul	0	0
total	57	276

Result

Final score

57 – 276

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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