Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.37 – 76.7

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±11.2

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 113.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 177.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10147ArmBots

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 3.85Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.8 ±13.3

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 0.29Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10166Thunder Vikes

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 0.26Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6934Scorps

Season APEX 102.9Event APEX 76.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 6995, 10147

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9084, 6995, 10147

Auto

51.8 17%

Teleop

165.1 56%

Endgame

80.2 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6658, 10166, 6934

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6658, 10166, 6934

Auto

7.2 10%

Teleop

37.3 54%

Endgame

24.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.4pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 217.7
Score range: 41–330
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 199.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.2Season APEX173.8

51.8Auto7.2

165.1Teleop37.3

80.2Endgame24.3

74Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	72	58
endgame	77	43
foul	0	0
total	169	114

Result

Final score

169 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 81.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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