Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
188.02 – 70.14
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
347 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 96.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 514 ±9.9
Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 60.82Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 3.93Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 123.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.4 ±13.9
Season APEX 51.2Event APEX 15.11Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 13.27Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 60.9Event APEX 41.76Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5089, 11024, 3501
58
/ 100 compatProjected
188 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 5089, 11024, 3501
Auto
36.2 21%
Teleop
87.0 50%
Endgame
50.5 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9772, 9696, 3328
37
/ 100 compatProjected
70.1 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 9772, 9696, 3328
Auto
15.0 22%
Teleop
34.5 51%
Endgame
17.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 5%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score188pts
Blue projected score70.1pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample180alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 117.9
- Score range
- 32–226
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
514Season APEX155.4
36.2Auto15
87Teleop34.5
50.5Endgame17.8
7Consistency1
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 44 | 15 |
| teleop | 218 | 14 |
| endgame | 75 | 8 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 347 | 37 |
Result
Final score
347 – 37
Prediction correct · off by 96.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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